Why you shouldn't set Predictability targets

While predictability is pretty important for management, and having an agile team/organization deliver in a predictable manner is certainly aspirable, setting targets for predictability is a terrible idea. And here's why:

Blue lines are reinforcing, red lines negative reinforcement, orange items are under the teams' control.

As soon as we set Predictability as a target, we create a reinforcement loop that rewards teams for spending more time planning and less time actually developing. The same reinforcement loop also destroys the very thing called "agility", i.e. the flexibility of "responding to change over following a plan."

As a consequence of both reinforcement loops initiated by setting a predictability target, we reduce the ability to actually deliver business value. As such:

Developers who work towards a Predictability objective do so at the expense of Business Objectives.

If that's not yet clear enough, let me put it bluntly:

Predictability targets hurt your company's bottom line.

 

Hence, I will strongly advise to resist the urge of using predictability as a KPI and setting predictability targets on software development.