The "Confidence Vote" is a SAFe mechanism that is intended to ensure both that the created PI Plan is feasible, and also to ensure that people understand the intent behind creating the common plan - what it means, and what it doesn't. Implied in SAFe are two different kinds of confidence vote with slightly different focus.
Train Confidence Vote
The "Train Confidence Vote" is taken on the Program Board - i.e. the aligned, integrated PI plan across all teams. All participants of the PI-Planning are asked to simultaneously
vote on the entire plan. Here are the key considerations, all of which should be taken into account:
Objectives: Feasibility and Viability
First, we should look at the ART's PI objectives realistic, and does it make sense to pursue them? Do we have our priorities straight, and are we focused on delivering maximum value to our customer?
High Confidence on PI objectives would imply that these objectives are SMART (Specific, Measurable, Ambitious, Realistic, Timebound) within the duration of the PI.
Features: Content and Scope
Do we have the right features, do all of them provide significant progress towards our objectives, did we pick a feasible amount, and did we arrange them in a plausible order and are the right people working on them? Is the critical path clearly laid out, and is the load on the bottleneck manageable?
High Confidence on Features would imply that everyone is behind the planned feature arrangement.
Dependencies: Amount and Complexity
If we have too many dependencies, the amount of alignment effort throughout the PI will be staggering, and productivity is going to be abysmal. You also need to manage external dependencies, where the Train needs something from people who aren't part of the Train, and you need to pay extra attention when these people didn't even attend the PI-Planning.
High Confidence of Dependencies would imply that active efforts were made to eliminate as many dependencies as possible, and teams have aligned already how they deal with the inevitable ones. When people either mark a high amount of dependencies without talking about them, or you feel that some weren't mentioned, that should reduce your confidence drastically.
Risks: Quantity, Probability and Impact
Risks are normal part of life, but knowingly running into disaster isn't smart. Were all the relevant risks brought up? Have they been ROAM'ed properly? How likely will you be thrown off-track, and how far?
When you consider risks well under control, that can give you high confidence in this area - when you feel like you're facing an army of gremlins, vote low.
Big Picture: Outcomes and approach
After looking at all the detailed aspects, take one step back: Are we doing lots of piecemeal work, or do we produce an integrated, valuable product increment? Do we have many solitary teams running in individual directions, or do we move in the same direction? Do you have the impression that others know what they're doing?
When you see everyone pulling on the same string and in the same direction, in a feasible way, that could give you high confidence. When you see even one team moving in a different direction, that should raise concerns.
Team Confidence Vote
During your breakout sessions, the Scrum Master should frequently check pulse on team confidence. The key guiding question should be: "What do you need so that you can vote at least a 4, preferrably a 5, on our team's plan?"
Your team plan is only successful when every single member of the team votes at least a 3 on it, so do what it takes to get there. It's entirely inacceptable for a team member to lean back comfortably and wait for the team confidence vote and then vote 2, they should speak up immediately when they have concerns. Likewise, it's essential that teams have clarified all the issues that would lead them to vote low on their team's plan before going into the PI confidence vote.
When your team can not reach confidence, do not hesitate - involve Product Management and the RTE immediately to find a solution!
Here are the factors you should consider in your team confidence vote:
Objectives
Does your team have meaningful objectives, are you generating significant value?
Understanding
Do you really understand what's expected from you, how you're contributing to the whole, what makes or breaks success for you - what the features mean, what your stories are, what they mean, and what's required to achieve them?
Capacity and Load
Do you understand, including predictable and probable absences, how much capacity your team has? How likely can you manage the workload? Have you accommodated for Scrum and SAFe events? Would unplanned work break your plan?
Dependency Schedule
Can you manage all inbound dependencies appropriately, do you trust the outbound dependencies to be managed in a robust way? What's your contingency plan on fragile dependencies?
Risks
Are you comfortable with the known risks? Do you know your Bus Count, and have you planned accordingly? Do you trust that larger-scaled risks will be resolved or mitigated in time?
Readiness
Right after the PI-Planning, you will jump into execution. Do you have everything to get on the road?
Closing remarks
This list isn't intended to check each factor individually, and it isn't intended to be comprehensive, either. It is merely intended to give you some guidance on what to ponder. If you have considered all these, you probably haven't overlooked anything significant. If you still feel, for any reason, that you can't be confident in your plan, by all means, cast the vote you feel appropriate, and start the conversation that you feel is required.
It's better to spend a few minutes extra and clarify the concerns than to find out too late that the entire PI plan is garbage.
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